Coal oil gas reserves

Fossil fuel reserves and their global warming potential

Each year we seem to find more and more coal, oil, and gas reserves. There is a sigh of relief as we will not run out in our lifetimes. What very few people are seeing, because it is invisible, is that we are running out of room for the resulting CO2 to be dumped. Our atmosphere reserves are becoming exhausted.

I've done a simple calculation. If we burn 13% of known fossil fuel reserves, then we will be at our limit of 450 ppm CO2 . I sold all my shares in any company with coal reserves. They are overvalued. Coal is a stranded asset, a dead man walking.

At our present rate of use, Australia's oil reserves will be gone by 2020. We need to stop coal and gas and eke out out oil until better alternatives can be found for air, sea and remote travel

Reserves

Coal  ppm Oil  ppm Gas  ppm Total  ppm

The most we can burn

to produce 50 ppm

North America 98 4 2 104  
Central and S America 6 12 2 20  
Europe & Eurasia 112 8 17 136  
Middle East 1 42 20 63  
Africa 13 7 4 24  
Asia Pacific (China India Aust…) 106 2 4 113  
Total World 336 75 50 460 13% of reserves
           
Canadian oil sands 0 9 0 9  
World total oil sands 0 84 0 84  
Australia 31 0 1 33
 

World Fossil fuel as Gigatonnes of Carbon

Coal

Oil

Gas

Total

   

Consumption  2009

Gt Carbon

Gt Carbon

Gt Carbon

Gt Carbon

Gt CO2

ppm CO2

Australia 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.12 0.44 0.06
North America
0.88
0.74
0.53
2.16
7.91
1.04
Central and S America
0.04
0.18
0.09
0.31
1.14
0.15
Europe & Eurasia
0.76
0.66
0.69
2.11
7.73
1.02
Middle East
0.02
0.24
0.22
0.48
1.77
0.23
Africa
0.18
0.10
0.06
0.34
1.26
0.17
Asia Pacific (China India Aust…)
3.58
0.87
0.32
4.78
17.51
2.31
Total World
5.46
2.80
1.92
10.18
37.32
4.92
             

Production

 
         
Australia 0.39 0.04 0.02 0.45 1.64 0.22
North America
0.98
0.53
0.45
1.96
7.19
0.95
Central and S America
0.09
0.29
0.08
0.46
1.69
0.22
Europe & Eurasia
0.71
0.73
0.53
1.97
7.23
0.95
Middle East
0.00
0.98
0.22
1.21
4.43
0.58
Africa
0.24
0.39
0.11
0.74
2.73
0.36
Asia Pacific (China India Aust…)
3.76
0.33
0.24
4.33
15.87
2.09
Total World
5.79
3.25
1.64
10.68
39.15
5.16
             

Reserves

 
         
Australia 65 0 3 68 248 33
North America
202
9
5
216
792
104
Central and S America
13
24
4
41
152
20
Europe & Eurasia
231
16
35
281
1,032
136
Middle East
1
87
42
130
475
63
Africa
27
14
8
50
182
24
Asia Pacific (China Indda Aust…)
220
5
9
234
857
113
Total World
695
154
103
952
3,490
460
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
Candian oil sands
0
20
0
20
72
9
Total oil sands
0
174
0
174
639
84
 

Coal and oil is 85% Carbon and gas is 75%.

1 TOE (tonne of Oil Equivalent) is  1.5 T of black and 3 T of brown coal

 

One of the major problems is that, despite the certainty of climate change, the world is planning to rapidly increase the amount of fossil fuel produced.

Carbon Bombs

Map of "carbon bombs” identified by the Greenpeace/Ecofys report: Point of no return. Australia is up there with the worst of them, worse than even the Canadian tar sands.

Expansion of the fossil fuel industry defies all logic for life on Earth. 

Unburnable ​carbon

Most of the new fossil fuel discoveries can never be burnt without destroying the climate. They are stranded assets and will be causing some financial pain before the decade is over.

http://www.carbontracker.org/unburnable-carbon-interactive

Australian fossil fuel reser​ves

Australia has:

Coal - 9 percent of the world’s coal reserves and is the world’s largest exporter.  

Oil - 0.3 percent of the world’s conventional oil.  It will be finished before 2030.

Gas - 1.3 percent of the world’s natural gas. 

Coal seam, and shale gas are still being discovered.

 

Gas

According to  the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (BREE) there are 184,000 petajoules  (PJ)  of  identified  conventional natural  gas in Australia  –   placed in context, this is enough gas to supply all of Australia at current levels for more than 130 years. By comparison there is , potentially, far more unconventional gas, with 101,434 PJ of  identified gas and a further 569,672 PJ of inferred and assumed unconventional gas resources.

Oil

According to The Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), Australia had 3.3 billion barrels of proven oil reserves as of January 1, 2011. Australian crude oil is of the light variety, typically low in sulfur and wax, and therefore of higher value than the heavier crudes. The majority of reserves are located off the coasts of Western Australia, Victoria, and the Northern Territory. Western Australia has 64 percent of the country’s proven crude oil reserves, as well as 75 percent of its condensate and 58 percent of its LPG. The two largest producing basins are the Carnarvon Basin in the northwest and the Gippsland Basin in the southeast. While Carnarvon Basin production, accounting for 72 percent of total liquids production, is mostly exported, Gippsland Basin production, accounting for 24 percent, is predominantly used in domestic refining.

Ref

 

 

 

Oil and gas reserves

The ethical questions are:

How much are we leaving for  future generations, and

how much global warming will it contribute if we burn it?

Oil, gas and condensate

It is difficult to discuss oil and gas separately as they often occur together.

Underground where the temperature is high, many hydrocarbons exist as a gas/vapour, but when brought to the surface and cooled, they condense as liquidsl. These liquids are classified as "condensates".

 

Oil, Condensate,  LPG and Natural Gas



Australia's Economic Demonstrated Resources and Production of Crude Oil, Condensate, Naturally Occurring LPG and Natural Gas, 1982-2010

(gigalitres and billions of cubic metres)

End of year Crude Oil Condensate LPG Gas
EDR Annual Production R/P EDR Annual Production R/P EDR Annual Production R/P EDR Annual Production R/P
1982 260 20.6 13 83 1.2 69 123 2.8 44 641 11.8 54
1983 235 22.3 11 74 0.8 93 87 3.3 26 629 9 70
1984 240 23.3 10 81 1.5 54 86 4.3 20 689 12.1 57
1985 217 32.5 7 86 1.8 48 88 4.9 18 709 13.3 53
1986 242 31.5 8 116 2.1 55 99 3.8 26 902 16.2 56
1987 246 29.8 8 119 2.9 41 97 4.7 21 1069 14.4 74
1988 255 27.4 9 122 2.8 44 130 4.5 29 1033 16.9 61
1989 260 25.1 10 119 3.1 38 114 3.7 31 955 18.9 51
1990 270 30.3 9 118 3.3 36 114 4.8 24 927 21.3 44
1991 258 28.3 9 124 3.5 35 131 4.3 30 950 22.1 43
1992 244 27.1 9 133 3.7 36 135 4.9 28 1006 24.1 42
1993 249 25.1 10 136 3.7 37 133 5.1 26 992 25.5 39
1994 297 27.2 11 156 4.1 38 154 5.3 29 1292 31.4 41
1995 277 24.1 11 183 5.5 33 144 5.7 25 1264 29.6 43
1996 240 25.3 9 193 6.5 30 174 4.9 36 1360 30.1 45
1997 266 25.5 10 192 8.1 24 184 5.1 36 1494 32.2 46
1998 243 23.2 10 273 7.8 35 243 7.1 34 1989 40.3 49
1999 215 23.3 9 277 7.1 39 262 5.8 45 1989 33 60
2000 194 35.1 6 300 7.4 41 292 5.6 52 2203 34.3 64
2001 206 30.7 7 289 7.5 39 293 5.6 52 2667 35 76
2002 176 28.8 6 277 9 31 274 6.1 45 2528 36.7 69
2003 186 25.1 7 247 7.9 31 210 7.1 30 2462 35.5 69
2004 157 23.8 7 301 7.8 39 214 5.9 36 2587 39.6 65
2005 169 18.9 9 257 11.2 23 214 8.7 25 2428 42.1 58
2006 160 19.4 8 236 10.9 22 203 8.8 23 2421 49.5 49
2007 162 19.5 8 228 10.2 22 191 7.9 24 2362 49.2 48
2008 188 18.6 10 340 10.8 31 174 8.7 20 3145 49.7 63
2009 170 15.2 11 340 11.7 29 166 9.3 18 2984 51.7 58
2010 154 18 9 335 13.6 25 153 9.3 16 2918 54 54

 

Data source: Geoscience Australia (2012) Oil and Gas Resources of Australia 2010. Geoscience Australia, Canberra (Geocat:73412) 

The table above shows that each year we extract about 10% of our oil reserves. At first we were discovering oil at about the same rate we were using it, however recent discoveries have not kept up.  in recent years oil production has fallen rapidly in Australia as the Bass Strait oil fields decline.

Australia’s production of petroleum liquids peaked in 2000 and has been steadily declining since then.

Australia's oil will be finished by about 2030. It is important we find alternatives.

APEA